Good afternoon and welcome to this blog taking a look at the potential for some severe weather on Friday. At the time of writing, no weather warnings have been issued and it would probably be borderline for a warning to be issued.
So the reason I am writing this is it could our first day of the Autumn with wind speeds in excess of 60 mph. We have seen the various forecast models showing winds gusting 50 to 60 mph for a few days across the Western Isles and Tiree. I have had a few people message asking questions about the windy weather for Friday so I thought I would break it down for you and what we are expecting so far. There is also the chance of some very heavy rainfall over a short period of time as well.
The Met Office has tweeted the following about Friday
So at this stage the winds will increase late Thursday night in Friday morning. The strongest winds are expected between 07:00 and 12:00 with wind speeds gusting 50 to 60 mph widely. Some gusts reaching 65/ 70 mph could be possible. Winds are expected to ease down during the afternoon and evening gusting 30 mph.
Below we have a chart from the UK Met Office UKV model from the Weather Outlook which highlights max wind gusts for 09:00 Friday morning. Please note this is one model run. The highest gust on here is 68 mph for the Western isles and 65 mph for Tiree
Now using the excellent Windy.com we can see that both the GFS and ECMWF models are showing strong winds for the islands on Friday morning.
Firstly the ECMWF is a bit more conservative with the strong winds with gusts of 55 to 60 mph.
The GFS on the other hand is on the stronger side with the UKV the Met Office model as mentioned above with winds gusting 60 to 70 mph.
Again is important to stress this is just a single model runs from each model but gives you an idea of the potential risk of strong winds.
With regards to rainfall both the GFS and ECMWF have similar rainfall totals. The 24 hour accumulation totals from the 6z model run from the GFS show up to 30 mm of rainfall falling for the Western Isles and 20/25 mm for Tiree from midnight Friday until Midnight Saturday. This is shown in the image below from WXcharts. This amount of rainfall has been the general census across the previous 4 model runs. With a slight uptick in expected rainfall amounts.
So it is looking like our first spells of Wet and windy weather for the season and the first 60 mph of the season. It’s nothing too unusual for us at this stage but I will keep you updated. I won’t do another blog on this tomorrow unless the Met Office issues a warning. I will however drop another blog on Thursday warning or note to give you the latest. It would be a good time to prep your garden and store any loose items and make sure you are well stocked for power cuts etc.
Please do NOT use Western Isles Weather / Tiree for the protection of life and property please follow local and national government issued warnings and advice. Please have more than one source for weather information in extreme weather, Such as the Met Office and follow any advice and instructions from emergency responders.
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