Friday 30th of September severe weather for the Western Isles and Tiree

Good afternoon Western Isles and welcome to this severe weather blog. Covering the severe weather for the Western Isles and Tiree for Friday 30th of September. Our first spell of severe of the season so far. Just for awareness, this severe weather is not the tale end of a hurricane. This is caused by a deep area of low pressure to the North and North West of the islands and a vigorous frontal system.

So let’s start with the Met Office warning. So earlier today the Met Office issued a yellow weather warning for wind which covers Tiree and The Western Isles. The warning comes into force at 08:00 Friday morning and expires at 15:00 Friday afternoon. The full warning and latest updates can be found via the Met Office website or app. It is worth noting that despite the warning not coming into force until 08:00 we will see stronger winds increasing before that time.

and from the Met Office chief forecaster

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-09-29

Now a Yellow weather warning for rainfall has also been issued by the Met Office this does not cover the Western Isles or Tiree. However please note that we will see heavy and persistent rainfall in the islands. You can see this in the tweet below from the Met Office.

Another tweet from the Met Office shows the larger scale view of Fridays weather system

So in this stage of the blog, we are going to break the day down.

I feel this weather event could catch some people off guard with it being the first severe weather event of the season. 70 mph in late September is not unusual but something we would normally expect later in the Autumn and Winter.

So winds will start to increase this evening gusting 30 mph and increase further overnight gusting 40 to 50 mph. The peak across the islands will be from around 5 am till around 11 am with winds gusting 60 to 70 mph. Not everyone will see the strongest of these winds. it will be quite localised at times. There is good model consistency about these wind speeds. From my point of view, it could be quite hard to get verification with only having three Met Office sites on these islands. Tiree, South Uist and Stornoway to confirm how strong the winds get. I wouldn’t be surprised if some exposed coastal areas had wind gusts reaching 75 mph. Some of the models are indicating winds could be that strong but the overall consensus seems to indicate winds gusting 60 to 70 mph.

Rainfall will be another issue. The cloud will increase this afternoon with heavy rain moving in from the West gradually during the late evening and overnight hours. Becoming heavy and persistent at times. The heavy rain will clear as we go into the afternoon and will be replaced by sunshine and showers these will be heavy at times. Models are indicating rainfall totals of 20 to 40 mm as indicated by the image below from the WX charts website and its the ECMWF model from 00z this morning,

Thank you for reading. I will do another forecast update later this evening with my full in depth forecast for Friday.

Please do NOT use Western Isles Weather for the protection of life and property please follow local and national government issued warnings and advice. Please have more than one source for weather information in extreme weather, Such as the Met Office and follow any advice and instructions from emergency responders.

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