Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Monday 26th October until Wednesday 4th November.

Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.

This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.

Monday 26th October

After a windy weekend there is some good model agreement that we are going to see winds easing down for a time. We are going to see a mixture of sunshine and showers. Some of these heavy with brisk winds from the North West. Temps in single figures. High pressure builds in with some rain moving in from the West much later.

Tuesday 27th October

A lot of uncertainty. A deep area of low pressure is expected between us and Iceland. The EC is suggesting low pressure below 940 mb to our West and we would see heavy rain and strong winds. The closer the low and the tighter the isobars the stronger the winds. This would likely bring us winds of 50 to 60 mph based on this current track. The GFS on this model runs keeps it further West and keeps it windy for us but the very strongest winds much further out to sea.

Wednesday 28th October

Good model agreement that keeps the deep area of low pressure out to sea. We would see strong and blustery winds across the Western Isles. With winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. Both models show a new area of low pressure. EC has it far West toward the end of the day. The GFS shows the low pressure over Ireland with strong winds and rain.

Thursday 29th October

Again some model differences with the EC suggesting the area of low pressure pushing past the North West of Scotland. Not that deep however we would see some strong winds for a time and showers. The GFS bring the low near Ireland Northwards it would bring rain and strong winds for us for a time. Risk of some snow over higher ground.

Friday 30th October

More differences with the EC suggesting a day of sunshine and showers. With heavy rain moving in later. The GFS suggests a deep area of low pressure moving across England and Wales into the North Sea with. Just some spells of rain for the Western Isles.

Saturday 31st October

Some more model agreement for the last day of October with high pressure building in for a time with some mostly light rain for the the Western Isles on the EC but in the GFS suggests some heavy rain for a time but becoming more settled.

1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th November

Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. At this long range the GFS there is some suggestion of two areas of low pressure one to the West of the Western Isles and one in the North sea for the first two days and then a Northerly showery airflow setting up behind.

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Good morning Western Isles this is your morning brief

On this Thursday morning, we are seeing a mixture of clear skies and cloud. The cloud is dominating for most. Some light rain and drizzle but most places are dry. Overnight low of 6.1C. Winds have dropped under 20 mph.

We remain under a SEPA flood alert. The full alert can be found via the SEPA website.

Across the highlands and islands on Wednesday Harris Quidnish had both the lowest and highest maximum temperature of 7.9C and 8.4C

Today – A mainly fine and dry day. A mixture of sunshine and cloud. Some decent spells of sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon. Cloud increases into this evening. Some rain will push into the far West later. Winds mainly light but also increasing into the evening. Winds of 10 to 30 mph. Winds will be from the South and South West. Todays high of 11C

Friday – Heavy overnight rain and blustery winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Into Friday we are going to see some sunshine and showers. These heavy at times. Some decent spells of sunshine in between.

Saturday – A windy day with winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. A chance of some gusts reaching 60 to 65 mph for the Uists and Barra. Heavy morning rain and then sunshine and showers thereafter.

Sunday – Sunshine and showers with some heavy spells of rain at times. Winds gusting 40 to 55 mph.

Have a great day.

It had been a wet and windy couple of days. We hit 50 mph today. Nothing significant I know but strongest since June.

Now it’s that time of year again. A couple of things to bear watching. Saturday is looking increasingly likely that we could see the first 60 mph of the Autumn/ Winter period with a fairly deep area of low pressure. Heavy rain. There is a slight chance we may see stronger than 60 mph. No warnings have been issued at this stage. But now is the time to get ready. Securing loose objects in the garden and if required touches etc if we lose power.

The second and we have been getting questions about this so wanted to tackle it head on is next Tuesday. A long way off in terms of weather. However various computer models have been showing an extremely low pressure to our North West. Which could bring us some strong winds. However, it’s not worth getting worried about yet just be aware and let’s get Saturday and Sunday our the way with first. The weekend isn’t looking too significant but the first 60 mph plus is worth keeping an eye on.

I will keep you updated as ever.

Good evening Western Isles on this Wednesday evening we are seeing further heavy rain across the Western Isles. This is persistent and slow moving in places. Some drier interludes. Today’s high of 10.5C

Overnight – We are going to see some further spells of rain. These mainly light but the odd heavier shower at times. Some clear spells but the cloud will dominate. The rain is expected to clear most places as the night goes on. Winds of 20 to 40 mph strongest in the early evening. Overnight low of 5C

Morning and afternoon – Mainly overcast with some decent spells of sunshine. A few scattered showers around but most places are expected to stay dry. The greatest risk of showers for the Uists and Barra. Winds of 10 to 30 mph.

Evening – A dry but overcast start with some clear spells. Mainly dry with a few scattered showers. Some heavier rain later in the evening moving in from the West. Winds of 10 to 30 mph getting stronger later.

Winds will be from the North and North East and later coming in from the South and South West. Temps of 5C to 11C

Friday – Sunshine and showers with brisk winds. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph.

Saturday – Gales with possible severe gales with some very heavy rain again. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph possibly reaching 60 to 65 mph.

Sunday – Sunshine and heavy showers. Strong winds gusting 40 to 60 mph.

Have a great evening.

Good afternoon all just a quick extra update for you. Covering the Met Office warning for Northern Scotland and latest on weather conditions in the Western Isles.

A Met Office yellow weather warning has been issued this covers Northern parts of Scotland with up to 40 mm of rain falling.

⚠️ Yellow Weather Warning issued ⚠️

Heavy rain across northeast Scotland

Wednesday 16:00 – Thursday 08:00

Latest info 👉https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs pic.twitter.com/AswRyrGVJ6

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 21, 2020

The below text covers the above warning and comes from the chief forecaster.

The full warnings and latest updates can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-10-22&id=2e0140ba-d93c-444c-99af-02de62a5e987&details

Western Isles

For us in the Western Isles the Scottish Environment Protection Agency flood alert has been updated.

The full flood alert and latest updates can be found here https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/4964/

Winds have been gusting 40 to 50 mph and the highest wind speed so far has been 50 mph.

Thanks for reading.

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Good morning Western Isles this is your morning brief

On this Wednesday morning, we are seeing further rain, This is heavy in places. Some rain and drizzle. Winds gusting 40 to 50 mph. Some dry slots. Overnight low of 9.1C

We are under a SEPA flood alert. The full alert can be found via the SEPA website.

Today – We are going to see further spells of rain. These will be heavy and persistent at times. Some dry slots at times. Winds will be gusting 40 to 50 mph. Easing a little as we go into the evening. Temps of 6C to 11C but feeling 3 to 4C in the wind chill.

Thursday – Sunshine and cloud with light winds. A few scattered showers. Chilly start.

Friday – Sunshine and showers with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Some heavy rain in the early morning.

Saturday – Heavy and persistent rain in the early part of the morning. Then sunshine and showers. It will be windy some uncertainty as yet but likely to be gusting 40 to 50 mph and some risk of gusts reaching 60 mph for the Uists and Barra.

Have a great day.

Good evening Western Isles on this Tuesday evening we are seeing blustery winds gusting 30 to 45 mph. We seeing rain across Lewis and Some drier slots for North Uist and Harris with further heavy rain moving into the Uists and Barra. Today’s high of 11.4C

A Scottish Environment Protection Agency has issued a flood alert for the Western Isles. The full alert can be found via the SEPA website.

Overnight – We are going to see further spells of heavy and slow moving rain. Some drier spells in between. The cloud will dominate. We are going to see winds gusting 30 to 40 mph at times reaching 50 mph. The very heaviest of the rain is expected across the Uists and Barra.

Morning and afternoon – Further spells of rain. These will be heavy at times. Slow moving. Some more drier slots in between and turning lighter. The cloud will dominate. It will stay windy. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and some gusts reaching 50 mph.

Evening – The very heaviest of the rain slowly clearing away. Showers with occasional spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Winds of 20 to 40 mph.

Winds will be from the North and North East. Temps of 5C to 11C. Feeling much colder in the wind chill.

Sunrise and Sunset

Stornoway – 08:16 and 18:03

South Uist – 08:18 and 18:09

3 days ahead

Thursday – Mainly fine dry and overcast with some sunny spells light winds.

Friday – Windy with heavy rain then sunshine and showers thereafter.

Saturday – Further heavy rain. Then showers with strong winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph possibly 60 mph at times.

Have a geat evening.

Good afternoon and welcome to Tuesday’s Weather Watch taking a look at the weather for the islands, the UK and around the Globe.

On this Tuesday afternoon we are seeing fairly overcast conditions across the Western Isles. Rain for the bulk of the islands. Still heavy in places. Winds under 20 mph. Today’s high of 12C so far.

We have a full blog on the rainfall totals here https://westernislesweather.com/2020/10/20/western-isles-rainfall-totals-and-update-for-19th-20th-october/

A reminder we remain under a Scottish Environment Protection Agency flood alert for the Western Isles. The full alert can be found on the SEPA website

We are now going to take a look at the next few days weather. All the images shown below come from the Met office and can be found by following this link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

Western Isles forecast – (UK forecast to follow)

Wednesday – We are going to see another unsettled day. Further spells of rain which will be heavy and persistent at times across the Western Isles. Low pressure across Ireland and low for South East England. We are going to see strong winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and at times in the early hours of tomorrow gusting 50 mph at times. Winds will be from the North East. Temps of 5 to 9C but feeling colder in the wind chill.

Thursday – and DEEP breath. a ridge high pressure builds across the UK and settles things down for a time. We are going to see a mainly fine and dry day. A mixture of sunshine and cloud. Light winds with some rain moving in later. A chilly start to the day. Temps of 5C to 11C and winds will be from the North and North East and then coming in from the South later.

Friday – A strong airflow on Friday will see winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Overnight heavy rain which will give way to sunshine and showers. Brisk winds all day. These showers heavy at times. Winds from the South West. Temps of 5C to 10C

UK forecast

Wednesday rain for most and strong winds. Heavy rain and weather warnings have been issued more below. Thursday a mainly fine and dry day with sunshine and cloud. A few scattered showers with some rain moving in from the West later. Friday a band of rain will move across the UK from West to East sunshine and cloud with a few showers behind it. Brisk winds.

UK Weather News

Met Office yellow weather warning for rain has been issued for parts of England for Wednesday. There will also be strong winds with it.

⚠️ Yellow RAIN Warning⚠️

0300-1400 Tomorrow across parts of England

Travelling in the morning?

Heavy rain could cause disruption with surface water and spray on roads and flooding possible

Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/15EmiYVkL0

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 20, 2020

The test below is for the above warning – the latest warnings and updates for this can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-10-21&id=6acf930c-a271-4f63-9aea-d55346e53b66&details

Storm Barbara is bring wind and rain to parts of Spain and Portugal and red warnings have been issued. This will have impacts on the UK on Wednesday with the above warning

#StormBarbara is having an impact on Portugal and west Spain right now
…but will play a part in the weather across southern parts of the UK tomorrow

⚠️Latest weather warnings: https://t.co/WR0QwwhnOq pic.twitter.com/nGKG9Z6mlh

— BBC Weather (@bbcweather) October 20, 2020

Storm Barbara could result in 250 mm of rainfall!

Spain & Portugal are in for a very wet day from #stormBarbara (named by the Spanish Met Service) As much as 250mm could fall, equivalent to 4-6weeks worth of rain in 24 hours with flooding likely.

This will then move NE towards SE England overnight with heavy rain & gales@GMB pic.twitter.com/Y0DBnWtk4x

— Laura Tobin (@Lauratobin1) October 20, 2020

Global Weather News

Heavy rainfall has resulted in flooding in Cork

Beer kegs getting carried downstream…

This is Not a drill, if you own a city business..get in here..#pembrokestreet #corkflood pic.twitter.com/WYNtwMfn5W

— Richard Jacob (@idahocafe) October 20, 2020

We also have tropical storm Epsilon in the Atlantic

For the very latest please refer to the National Hurricane Centre.

Thank you for reading. I hope you have enjoyed it. Feedback is always welcome.

You can support us on Patreon here https://www.patreon.com/westernislesweather?fan_landing=true

This is update to the rainfall totals that have fallen across the Western Isles and the latest from SEPA.

The heaviest of the rain is now slowly starting to clear away from the Western Isles. This is the 1300 radar from Netweather

The Met Office yellow warning for rain has now expired. However we ramin under a SEPA flood alert (as of 1300) for the Western Isles. The full flood alert can be found here https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/4964/

The last 24 hour rainfall accumulation across Scotland from Netweather

Here is the rainfall totals for the Western Isles since midnight on Monday.

Met Office sites

Stornoway Airport – 25 mm

South Uist – 49 mm

SEPA rainfall gauges

Creed Bridge – 30. 4 mm

Laxdale Harris – 37 mm

Loch Tormsad – 43 mm

Mill Croft – 41.2 mm

Did you get woken by the rain last night?

It's been especially wet in western Scotland…..

Tiree
Achnagart
Harris-Quidnish
Tyndrum

Have all recorded more than 50mm of rain since yesterday morning pic.twitter.com/StgHdi1C5a

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 20, 2020

Good morning Western Isles this is your morning brief

On this Tuesday morning, we are seeing rain across the Western Isles. This rain is heavy in places. Overnight the heaviest rain was for the Uists with over 40 mm of rain. Winds gusting 30 mph and an overnight low of 10.6C

Reminder we are under a Met Office warning for rain until 0900 this morning. Plus a Scottish Environment Protection Agency flood alert.

Today – Further spells of rain. Heavy at times and some persistent spells. We are going to see some showery conditions later with some drier spells and the odd sunny spell with further spells of rain later. Winds gusting to 30 mph. Todays high off 11C

Wednesday – Overcast with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. At times reaching 50 mph for the Uists and Barra. Showers at times with some heavy rain at times. The cloud dominating.

Thursday – Sunshine and cloud with light winds. A few scattered showers. Chilly start.

Friday – Sunshine and showers with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Some heavy rain in the early morning.

Have a great day.

Hello and welcome to the last 7 days photographs. A selection of stunning photographs of the Western Isles shared by you to us.

Manish Norse Cairn – Kaori Laird

Kneep Uig – Aline Mackenzie Macaulay

Barvas – Stuart McGowen

Scolpaig ( and a cheeky seal) – Tracey Smith

Tiorga Mor North Harris – Isi Oakley

Dailburgh – Ann Marie Johnstone Daly

Gress – Dena Murray

Loch Bee – Lena Macpherson

Barra – Henry

Eoligarry – Rachel Saunders

Traigh Siar – Floraidh Macleod

Port of Ness – Cat Campbell

Castle grounds – Shona Macleod

Castle grounds – Sheena Fulton

Baymore – Mairi Claire Ellwood

Eriskay – Mary Ann Scott

Shawbost – Niki Church

Sandwick Bay – Megan Grey

Broadbay – Claire Coldock

Claddach Carinish – Ann Currie

Braighe – Ed Lewis

Gramsdale – Fiona Campbell

Northton – Paul Chamberlin

Lochboisdale – Taz McGovern

Mangersta – Diana Calvert

Knock – Jonathan Macaulay

Barra – Francis Buchanan

14th October, Point #IsleofLewis

Originally tweeted by cg (@Rapidolass) on October 18, 2020.

Reef beach Uig.

Originally tweeted by Murdo Macaulay (@HMCGAC18) on October 18, 2020.

Ben Braggar from Siabost beach

Originally tweeted by Rachel (@Rachel__child) on October 19, 2020.

Loch Soval & Leurbost taken on Wednesday 14/10

Originally tweeted by lochiegirl (@lochiegirl) on October 18, 2020.

Uig looking over to Bernera. October holidays.

Originally tweeted by william macaulay (@williammacaula2) on October 18, 2020.

Bagh nan Sligean, Lìonacleit, Benbecula, 18:55 Oct 14th.

Originally tweeted by Duncan Rowe (@DCFRowe) on October 19, 2020.

Trumisgarry, North Uist, Fri 16th Oct

Originally tweeted by 🐾Gael 🐾 (@GaelWebster1) on October 19, 2020.

Traigh Eais, Isle of Barra – 14th October.

Originally tweeted by Sineag Blane (@sineag28) on October 18, 2020.

Between Barra and south uist ! Friday 16th October !

Originally tweeted by rosanne adey (@AdeyRosanne) on October 19, 2020.

The creed today

Originally tweeted by Rick Henderson (@spannerrash) on October 19, 2020.

Gress River, 16th October

• 

• 

• 

Originally tweeted by Kate MacD63 (@KateMac88786833) on October 18, 2020.

Taken in Rhenigidale last Sunday

Originally tweeted by Coinneach Morrison (@CP_IsleofHarris) on October 18, 2020.

Beinn Tangabhal, Barra 18/10

Originally tweeted by Simon McCathie (@thepartysover2) on October 18, 2020.

Sunset on Loch Bi

From 16/10/2020 😊

Originally tweeted by karen (@ginko17) on October 18, 2020.

This was taken yesterday morning in Stornoway
I believe that 2 members of Stornoway Rowing Club in the Skiff

Originally tweeted by Coinneach Morrison (@CP_IsleofHarris) on October 18, 2020.

Dail Mor yesterday

Originally tweeted by Kenny Maclennan (@kenny_maclennan) on October 18, 2020.

Eriskay 🥰 12-17 oct!

• 

• 

• 

Originally tweeted by claire reilly (@MrsReilly84) on October 18, 2020.

Thank you to everyone who shared photos with us

Good evening Western Isles on this Monday evening we are seeing rain moving across the Western Isles. Heaviest for the Uists, Barra and Harris. Lighter for Lewis. So far the highest rainfall totals have been out of the Met Office warning area. Winds under 20 mph. Today’s high of 10.1C

Reminder Lewis and Harris are under a Met Office yellow weather warning for rain until 0900 Tuesday morning. The full warning and latest updates can be found via the Met Office website or app. Also, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency has issued a flood alert for the Western Isles. The full alert can be found via the SEPA website.

Overnight – We are going to see further spells of rain which will be heavy and at times persistent. We are going to see winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Some drier slots but most places are going to see rain. Winds will increase gusting 30 to 40 mph. Strongest for the Uists and Barra.

Morning and afternoon – Further spells of rain which will be heavy at times. Some drier spells for a time and some light rain. The cloud dominates. Winds of 10 to 25 mph.

Evening – Overcast and gradually becoming drier. But rain over Lewis mainly light rain and drizzle. winds of 10 to 30 mph.

Winds will be from the South East and North East. Temps of 7C to 13C

Sunrise and Sunset

Stornoway – 08:14 and 18:05

South Uist – 08:16 and 18:12

3 days ahead

Wednesday – Further spells of rain. Heavy at times with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph a cold wind.

Thursday – Chilly overcast with some sunny spells

Friday – Sunshine and showers with blustery winds.

Please DO NOT use Western Isles Weather for the protection of life and property. Please have one or more methods of getting extreme weather information. Please follow any and all instructions given by Emergency Services and Government advice.

Have a great evening.

Good afternoon and welcome to Monday’s Weather Watch taking a look at the weather for the islands, the UK and around the Globe.

On this Monday afternoon we are seeing rain across large parts of the Western Isles. The heaviest of the rain so far has been across the Uists and Barra. South Uist range has seen 9 mm of rainfall since midnight. Today’s high so far of 8.9C. Winds under 10 mph.

http://starlingsroost.asuscomm.com/weather/ukobs/ukgraphs.php?type=day&startdate=2020-10-18&starttime=18%3A00&enddate=2020-10-19&endtime=23%3A15&synop=03023

We are now going to take a look at the next few days weather. All the images shown below come from the Met office and can be found by following this link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

Western Isles forecast – (UK forecast to follow)

Tuesday – Low pressure is anchored over Ireland 981 mb. The strongest winds from this system will be out in the Atlantic where the tightest isobars area. We are going to see heavy and persistent overnight rain for large parts of the Western Isles. This will gradually clear away during the morning. Behind it will be overcast with some showers. Winds will be from the East and South East. Gusting 10 to 30 mph. Temps of 7C to 12C

Wednesday – On Wednesday we have quite the messy synoptic setup. We have multiple areas of low pressure in play. 988mb north of the Western Isles. 991 over central England and 999mb North West of spain. All these and associated weather fronts will bring us rain and strong winds at times. We are going to see further spells of heavy rain during Wednesday with some sunny spells in between. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph from the North and North West. Temps of 5C to 10C but feeling cooler in the wind chill.

Thursday – Things ever so briefly become more settled with a ridge of high pressure building in across the islands. A cold and chilly start with a mixture of sunshine and cloud. Light winds. Dry with some patchy rain moving in later.

UK Forecast

On Tuesday and area of low pressure moves across the Western parts of the UK bringing rain and gales. Dry with some sunny spells for Wale and England before rain arrives from the South later. Wednesday rain for Northern Scotland and Southern England. In between mainly dry with some sunshine and a few showers. Thursday a fine dry and sunny day for bulk of the UK. Light winds and a few scattered showers.

UK Weather News

There Met Office warnings in force for rainfall. This includes Lewis and Harris. I have done a blog on the impacts for the Western Isles.

https://westernislesweather.com/2020/10/19/met-office-rainfall-warning-and-sepa-flood-alert-for-the-western-isles-19-oct-2020/

The latest updates can be found via the Met Office website or app and there is also a SEPA flood alert in force for the Western Isles.

⚠️Yellow rain warnings updated ⚠️

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Scotland until 09:00 Tuesday

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Northern Ireland until 03:00 Tuesday

Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/9WfC4QZ1L5

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 19, 2020

The Spanish Met Office has named a low pressure system Storm Barbara more here from the UK Met Office

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/storm-barbara-191020

Global Weather News

In the tropical atlantic we have new formed tropical depression 27 and it expected to become tropical storm Epsilon

For the very latest please refer to the National Hurricane Centre website for the very latest.

Thank you for reading. I hope you have enjoyed it. Feedback is always welcome.

You can support us on Patreon here https://www.patreon.com/westernislesweather?fan_landing=true

Good afternoon. This morning the Met Office extended its wet weather warning for rainfall to cover the Western Isles. It is a yellow rainfall warning. The warning came into force in the early hours of this morning and expires at 0900 Tuesday morning.

They are expecting 20 to 40 mm of rainfall to fall widely in the warning area.

⚠️Yellow rain warnings updated ⚠️

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Scotland until 09:00 Tuesday

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Northern Ireland until 03:00 Tuesday

Latest info 👉 https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/9WfC4QZ1L5

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 19, 2020

For the very latest updates and full warning can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-10-19&id=95855521-23c1-4b96-b08a-c1cd950534bf&details

The Scottish Environment Protection Agency has also issued a flood alert for the Western Isles but the main areas of focus are Lewis and Harris.

The full alert and latest updates can be found here https://floodline.sepa.org.uk/floodupdates/info/group-id/4964/

Impacts for the islands

Looking at the two main models this morning the GFS is suggesting 40 to 50 mm widely across the Western Isles till midnight Wednesday from 0600 Monday morning. This is a little bit higher then what the Met Office is suggesting at this stage. The EC model is keeping it between 30 to 40 mm widely with up to 60 mm for Barra. Again 30 to 40 mm it roughly what we would expect and is line with the Met Office thinking however the 60 mm on Barra seems a little on the high side but worth keeping an eye on. This covers from midnight Monday till Midnight Wednesday.

I will keep you updated as things progress any warning updates and I will post rainfall totals later in the day.

Please DO NOT use Western Isles Weather for the protection of life and property. Please have one or more methods of getting extreme weather information. Please follow any and all instructions given by Emergency Services and Government advice.

Good morning Western Isles this is your morning brief

On this Monday morning, we are seeing a wet start to the day with rain which is heavy in places. Some drier slots but most are seeing rain. Overnight low of 7.8C. Winds under 10 mph.

Today – Rain which will be heavy at times and in spots persistent. Some dry spells in the late morning and early afternoon. Further spells of heavy and at times persistent rain during the evening. The cloud dominating with a few sunny spells. Winds gusting 20 to 30 mph but this morning under 10 mph.

Tuesday – Heavy and persistent rain for the morning becoming showery for the afternoon and evening. The cloud dominating. Winds gusting 20 to 30 mph.

Wednesday – Overcast with brisk winds. Showers at times with some heavy rain at times. The cloud dominating.

Thursday – Sunshine and cloud with light winds. A few scattered showers. Chilly start.

Have a great day.

Welcome to the week ahead forecast. The full in depth forecast for Monday can be found in the update below this one. The weekend has been a mainly overcast with some rain at times and mainly light winds. This next week will be unsettled.

Tuesday – We are going to see some heavy and persistent rain moving across the islands. Becoming more showery during the afternoon and evening. Some sunny spells. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph from the East and North East. Temps of 7C to 13C

Wednesday – Brisk Northerly winds. Some early morning rain but becoming largely fine and dry later. The cloud will dominate. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph from the North and it will feel chilly in the brisk winds. Temps of 5C to 11C

Thursday – A chilly start. However it will be a dry start to the day. Light winds and these winds will increase later. With some rain moving in. Winds will be 10 to 30 mph from the South West but shifting to come from the North West later. Temps of 4C to 11C

Friday – Further heavy overnight rain. Sunshine and showers. Winds again with winds gusting 30 to 40 mph. Winds will be from the West and South West and temps of 5C to 12C

Long range – Next weekend is looking wet and windy. With a chance of winds gusting in excess of 50 mph. Lots of uncertainty as yet but I will keep you updated.

I hope you have a great week. Over the course of the coming week, we will keep you updated with the latest weather and the 3 day ahead forecasts. Keep an eye on the blog for extra updates!

Good evening Western Isles on this Sunday evening we are seeing a mainly overcast evening with spells of rain. Some heavy in places. Winds under 10 mph and today’s high of 9.8C

Overnight – We are going to see an overcast night. Bands of rain which will be heavy at times. Some persistent rain at times. The cloud will dominate the heaviest of the rain in the East. Winds under 20 mph.

Morning and afternoon – The cloud will dominate. We will see a few sunny spells. We are going to see further spells of rain which will be heavy and persistent at times. Not all places will see rain. Winds of 10 to 30 mph.

Evening – Very heavy and persistent rain will move into the East of the Western Isles. Light rain with cloud for the West coast. The cloud will dominate. Winds under 20 mph.

Winds will be from the East and North East. Temps of 6C to 11C

Sunrise and Sunset

Stornoway – 08:11 and 18:08

South Uist – 08:14 and 18:14

have a great evening. A full week ahead forecast to follow.

Good afternoon and welcome to Sunday’s Weather Watch taking a look at the weather for the islands, the UK and around the Globe.

On this Sunday afternoon we are seeing mainly light rain and drizzle. Overcast and plenty of dry conditions. Winds under 10 mph. Todays high so far of 9.8C

We are now going to take a look at the next few days weather. All the images shown below come from the Met office and can be found by following this link https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/maps-and-charts/surface-pressure

Western Isles forecast – (UK forecast to follow)

Monday – low pressure starts to dominate our weather. We are going to see heavy rain move across the island in bands with some drier spells in between. Winds are going to gust 20 to 30 mph. The area of low pressure will be centred to the South West of the UK 987mb. With extended weather fitns bringing us rain. The winds wont be to strong as the isobars aren’t massively packed together. Winds will be from the East and North East. Temps of 6C to 10C

Tuesday – The low pressure system deepens. We are going to see some heavy and persistent rain moving across the islands. Becoming more showery during the afternoon and evening. The very strongest winds are expected to stay out to sea. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph from the East and North East. The low pressure sits off Ireland 978 mb.

Wednesday – Multiple areas of low pressure one in the Irish sea and one on the South East of England. For the Western Isles. Brisk Northerly winds. Some early morning rain but becoming largely fine and dry later. Winds gusting 30 to 40 mph and it will feel chilly in the brisk winds.

UK forecast

Monday heavy rain and blustery winds for Scotland and Northern Ireland with weather warnings issued. More on that below. England and Wales dry with some sunshine. Rain reaching Wales later. Tuesday rain and showers heavy at times for the West Coast of Scotland. Drier for South East England before rain arrives here later. Feeling chilly. Showery for Scotland with some sunny spells. Wind and rain for England and Wales heaviest in the South East.

UK Weather News

Weather warnings have been issued for Rainfall for Monday and Tuesday.

Early today we did a blog on the warning issued for South West Scotland which can be found here https://westernislesweather.com/2020/10/18/met-office-warnings-for-south-west-scotland-19-20th-october/

A warning has also been issued for Northern Ireland

⚠️ Yellow rain warnings issued ⚠️

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Scotland from 0300 Monday to 0900 Tuesday

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Northern Ireland from 0500 Monday to 0300 Tuesday

Latest info👉https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/RiuRmSGo4u

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 18, 2020

Full warning and latest updates can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-10-19&id=95855521-23c1-4b96-b08a-c1cd950534bf&details

Global Weather News

Wow what a photo

Ships passing under chaotic skies, with lightning and waterspouts, captured from Fiorenzuola di Focara, Italy on Sept 26th.

Photo by Francesco Gennarii – https://t.co/bJTsGHJ1e8
Posted with permission. pic.twitter.com/6z6HEdOGFA

— severe-weather.EU (@severeweatherEU) October 18, 2020

A tornado in Ukraine

Tornado in Kropyvnytskyi, Ukraine today. Videos from Facebook – https://t.co/G6VCL671Li pic.twitter.com/Q4JT0u6p4f

— Kirill Bakanov (@WeatherSarov1) October 17, 2020

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Good afternoon and welcome to our long range forecast. This is posted either once or twice a week covering from 4 days ahead to 10 days ahead. In this update coving from Thursday 22nd October until Saturday 31st October.

Please note there is not a lot of accuracy for this kind of time frame. Anything beyond 4/5 days out becomes really difficult and subject to change so we will be looking at trends. Mainly take with a large vat of salt. We will be using the main two computer models for this. The ECMWF which is based in Reading and the GFS which is the American based global model.

This comes from the GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00Z run. I will refer to EC to save on typing.

Thursday 22nd October

Good model agreement with regards to Thursday. After a wet start to the week Thursday is expected to be a more settled. High pressure in charge. Rain moving in much later in the day. Overcast day with mainly light winds with stronger winds into the late evening. Its expected to be a cooler day.

Friday 23rd October

Again good model agreement with showers and blustery winds. Brisk winds with a strong South Westerly airflow. Some sunshine. Temps in low double figures and an area of low pressure building out West.

Saturday 24th October

There is some computer model agreement about a deep area of low pressure moving to the North West of Scotland. The GFS brings the low pressure closer to the Western Isles then the EC and would see strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph with some hints of 60 to 70 mph for the Uists and Barra. This is a LONG way off yet and worth keeping an eye on at this stage. The EC suggests the low would be further West and thus reducing this risk of us seeing stronger winds. So at this stage we are again looking at trends and to see if computer models continue to show this area of low pressure forming and bringing it close to us. I will keep an eye on it closely and keep you updated if required.

Sunday 25th October

Good model agreement that would suggest that the area of low pressure would move away. The GFS suggests that we would see more in the way of rain and breezy conditions. The EC suggests less in the way of rain. Mainly high pressure across the UK.

Monday 26th October

Some model disagreement for the 26th October. The GFS suggests strong winds with heavy rain moving into the Western Isles. Winds gusting above 40 mph. The EC suggests brisk winds with high pressure across the UK but keeping things dry across the Western Isles.

Tuesday 27th October

Again more model disagreement the GFS suggests more of an unsettled airflow with brisk winds and more in the way of rain. The EC again suggest brisk winds and dry conditions with high pressure across the UK.

28th, 29th, 30th and 31st October

Now this really the long range. So really is take it with a large amount of salt and is the silly range. At this long range the GFS suggests an unsettled theme for the Western Isles. It also shows a deep area of low pressure across Ireland and into England and then South East Scotland. Again a long way off yet.

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Good afternoon the Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning for parts of South West Scotland on Monday and Tuesday. This comes as no surprise as this was forecast for a good few days now. NO weather warnings have been issued at this stage for the Western Isles. However I will mention possible impacts for the Western Isles below.

Here is the full warning from the Met Office – The warning comes into force at 0300 Monday morning and expires at 0900 Tuesday morning.

⚠️ Yellow rain warnings issued ⚠️

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Scotland from 0300 Monday to 0900 Tuesday

Yellow warning for rain for parts of Northern Ireland from 0500 Monday to 0300 Tuesday

Latest info👉https://t.co/QwDLMfRBfs

Stay #WeatherAware pic.twitter.com/RiuRmSGo4u

— Met Office (@metoffice) October 18, 2020

Here is the text to go alongside the warning and impact scale

The full warning and latest updates can be found here https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2020-10-19&id=95855521-23c1-4b96-b08a-c1cd950534bf&details

Western Isles

As mentioned above no weather warnings have been issued for us at this stage. I will update the page if any warnings do get issued.

The 06z run of the GFS model is suggesting anywhere from 40 to 50 mm of rainfall for the Western Isles from 0600 this morning till midnight Wednesday. Whilst the 00z run of the Euro model is suggesting 30 to 40 mm for the Western Isles. This covers from Midnight Sunday till Midnight Wednesday.

30 to 40 mph winds are also likely but are down from the 50 mph we were expecting to see a few days ago. Coming from the North and North East would likely cause some ferry disruption.